A high stakes game in Middle East

By This Is Money
Updated: 03:21 EDT, 22 February 2011

The immediate impact of rioting and bloodshed in the Middle East and North Africa on the Western democracies is being seen in the oil markets, where the price of Brent crude has popped up to $104 a barrel.

Japan, a big energy importer, already is warning that this could have an adverse impact on its growth and recovery.

History tells us that upheaval in the Middle East, going right back to the Yom Kippur war in 1973, has produced inflation and expansion shocks for the developed economies.

The longer and more uncertain the outcome of events, the greater the impact and the bigger the problem for the West.

As has been widely reported, the efforts by Tony Blair and former BP chief executive Lord Browne - now an adviser to the Coalition - to create commercial relationships with Colonel Gaddafi's brutal regime now look like an act of craven foolishness.

Not perhaps as bonkers, however, as Italy with its traditional ties to Libya. It has allowed the dictatorship to share in the ownership of car maker Fiat, banker UniCredit and the football club Juventus.

Britain has focused more on the Gulf states where, so far, only Bahrain is proving a serious problem.

Countries such as Kuwait have been sensible enough to spread a little of the oil billions around the citizens to keep them docile, when there are so few jobs around for a young population.

The United States has in recent times seen the Middle East princelings and autocrats as a useful foil against Iranian fundamentalism and nuclear advancement.

Incredibly, according to data analysed by Fortune magazine, in the period 2007-10 the Pentagon persuaded Congress to approve $180bn of arms sales to the region with $100bn approved since President Obama took office.

By far the biggest would-be importer has been Saudi Arabia which has spent $67bn, followed by the United Arab Emirates; $28bn, Israel; $25bn and Turkey; $10bn.

It is said that the Obama regime has been much more hands-off than its predecessors in the Middle East. The arms sales numbers, providing jobs for ordinary Americans during an economic slump when the US jobless rate has remained stubbornly close to 10%, clearly has been a fillip to the President's re-election hopes.

Britain has been no more cautious with our Royal family fawning over the Gulf potentates, such as the Emir of Qatar.

There could be a heavy price for everyone to pay for this misjudged political assessment which has focused on Middle East trade above that with the really important, faster-growing and safer markets further East.

Inviting Istanbul

Turkey provides clear proof that democracy and Islam can mix. It is becoming an increasingly favoured destination for UK businesses seeking emerging market exposure.

Latest into the country is Paul Walsh's Diageo, which is spending £1.3bn with a swoop on spirits group Mey Içki which is the market-leading distiller of the country's favourite spirit, raki. This is a potent relation to Greece's anise-flavoured ouzo and France's Pernod.

Raki is best drunk with ice and water and a fish meal overlooking the Continental divide of the Bosporus. Investors may worry that Diageo has overpaid. However, the experience of other UK companies exploring Turkey has been rather positive.

DIY and decor retailer Kingfisher regards its joint venture with the Koç Group in Turkey - where the operation is labelled Koçtas - as a great success.

Turnover in the last year reached £330m and profits climbed to £28m, of which half is reported in Kingfisher's global earnings.

After a rocky start, Vodafone has turned its £2.9bn purchase of mobile provider Telsim into a success story by dominating the 3G data market where it has become the top operator with 2.5m subscribers.

Turkey looks to be a place where UK firms can do business.

Online perils

The market is again starting to fear for the future independent prospects of Ocado given the decision of Waitrose, its main grocery supplier, to step up investment in its own internet delivery platform.

No one questions the efficiency of the Ocado model, which outperforms most of its grocery rivals in terms of service and flexibility.

But it may only be a matter of time before Tesco, Wm Morrison and the like catch up. And Waitrose looks to have decided that, certainly in its main hinterland in the South-East, it needs to develop its own online capacity or face being left behind.

Ocado may have shaken the bears off its register but it will not be helped by the announcement that founder chief executive Tim Steiner sold down his shareholding stake late on Friday. Tut-tut.