We are in the midst of an extraordinary set of fi nancial and economic circumstances. The UK economy is likely to experience an unusually sharp slowdown in the fi nal quarter of the year and into 2009.Central banks in the US, UK and Europe have, however, taken extraordinary measures to strengthen banks' balance sheets and revive wholesale money markets. These measures should work but will be subject to time lags. It is a question of 'when' not 'if' these policy responses gain the upper hand.Despite current pessimism, there are several reasons to expect signs of a recovery later next year. First, the signifi cant actions taken by central banks will eventually improve the health of the fi nancial system. Second, the Bank of England is charged with setting interest rates to ward off the dangers of defl ation as well as containing infl ationary risks. Third, as oil prices fall, the squeeze on real household incomes from higher energy prices should ease and boost real takehome pay.