(Sharecast News) - Americans were preparing to vote in the most divided midterm elections in living memory as the Democratic Party sought to capitalise on President Donald Trump's unpopularity and seize control of the House of Representatives.
All 435 seats in the house are up for grabs, with the Democrats needing at least 23 to wrest control from the Republicans. The race for the Senate is tighter, with only 35 of the 100 seats in play.

Even though the Republicans have a tiny one seat majority in the Senate, only nine of their seats are being contested, making the Democrat task much harder with polls suggesting they may even lose some seats.

No-one is prepared to make a definitive call on a result, given the volatile nature of current global politics, but consensus views are that the Democrats will take the house and the Republicans will retain control of the Senate.

Independent newsletter the Cook Political Report said the Democrats were "substantial favorites for House control and could pick up anywhere from 20 to 40 seats".

"President Trump's low approval ratings and Democratic voters' heightened enthusiasm are threatening Republicans' structural advantages in the House, including incumbency and favorably drawn districts."

The implications for Trump's agenda are serious, as the Democrats have talked openly of removing him from office. At the very least they could gridlock his legislative plans and leave him as a "lame duck" president.

In addition to the congressional elections, there are gubernatorial races taking place across the nation.

These too have been in the spotlight. Three elections could put a trio of African-American candidates in the governor's mansions for the first time. Democrat Stacey Abrams could unseat he rival Brian Kemp in Georgia and her colleague Andrew Gillum is in with a chance in Florida against Republican Ron DeSantis.

All of the votes are seen as a personal referendum on Trump himself and his incredible ability to polarise the nation.

However, no-one is ruling out a win for his Republicans, which would embolden him and fuel momentum for his bid for a second term in office.

Trump himself has hit the campaign trail hard. He has used his populist rallies to whip up anti-immigrant fervour among his hard-right base of support.

Curiously he has almost completely ignored the economy, at a time when jobs are being created and wages rising thanks to his tax cuts package, although analysts argue that the handout benefited the rich and filled vacancies are largely low-wage positions.

Instead he has tried to claim that win for the Democrats would propel the US into a "socialist nightmare" characterised by illegal immigration and rising crime.

The Democrats, meanwhile, have focused very strongly on healthcare to attract a broader base, knowing that a purely anti-Trump campaign was unlikely to lure swing voters.

The issue is foremost among Democrat and independent voters. The party has campaigned saying the Republicans would take away healthcare coverage for pre-existing conditions and other protections afforded by the Affordable Care Act, otherwise known as Obamacare after Trump's predecessor Barack Obama.

Trump's bellicosity levels have been turned up to 11 as he attacked political opponents on a personal and party level twinned with factually incorrect statements about a migrant caravan that is travelling towards the US southern border from Central America.

Trump claimed there were criminals and "unknown Middle Easterners" among the group, but failed to provide any evidence. He has readied 15,000 troops to deploy to the Mexican border even though the migrants are a long way short of their goal.

A Trump campaign advert designed to feed off his anti-immigrant rhetoric, which featured a Mexican man convicted of killing two police officers, backfired when it was taken off Facebook, NBC and Fox News. CNN had already rejected it, claiming it was racist.

An unexpected win for Trump would galvanises his presidency and could renew the bull market for a "fresh tilt at all-time highs for US equity markets", said market analyst Neil Wilson at Markets.com.

While polling points the other way, there remains a strong likelihood that reluctant conservatives could swing the result for the Republicans, with the contest resting on some very close fights and small swings that could produce very different election results.

The Democrat's geographic disadvantage means even a strong swing in their favour on a per-voter basis may not be enough to secure the House, Wilson suggested.

"This means markets are arguably not pricing in the chance that the GOP retains both houses, a scenario that would give Trump a free hand to proceed with his agenda. This would likely stoke the bullish-equities, bullish-USD, higher-yield story. It would also ensure he doubles down on his fight with China on trade.

"A GOP clean sweep would support further deregulation and tax-cutting measures, which will be positive for stocks and the dollar. It would be the necessary catalyst for this decade-old bull market to have one last hurrah, pushing back up to 27k and beyond on the Dow and potentially 3k on the S&P 500 before the inevitable correction and bear market."

Email this article to a friend

or share it with one of these popular networks:

• DIGG
• FACEBOOK
• STUMBLEUPON
• MIXX
• YAHOO BUZZ
• DELICIOUS
• REDDIT
• NEWSVINE