UK trade expected to contribute to growth in quarter four

Date: Wednesday 11 Jan 2012

The UK’s seasonally adjusted deficit on trade in goods and services was £2.6bn in November, compared with October’s deficit of £1.9bn, according to the latest data out today from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The deficit in trade in goods was £8.6bn in November (Consensus: -£8.35bn), compared with a deficit of £7.9bn in October.

The surplus in services was estimated at £6.1bn in November, compared with the surplus of £6.0bn seen in October.

Excluding oil and erratic items, the seasonally adjusted volume of exports was 1.7% lower, and the volume of imports was 1.1% higher in November, compared with October.

Export prices of goods fell by 0.4% on the month and import prices of goods fell by 0.2%.

Commenting on the data after its release economists at Barclays Capital are saying that, “While the goods trade deficit for November exceeded expectations, this most recent deterioration should be interpreted bearing in mind the volatility of the monthly data. The higher deficit comes after it recorded a strong improvement the previous month and can be seen to some extent as a correction of that sharp move. Nevertheless, despite the erratic movements over recent months, an improvement is noticeable for Q4 so far compared to Q3, and we expect the trade balance to have made a positive contribution to GDP growth in Q4 2011.”

AB

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