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Date: Monday 21 Jul 2008
LONDON (ShareCast) - Britain will struggle to avoid falling into recession next year with growth slowing and inflation set to remain high, according to the latest forecast from Ernst & Young's Item Club.
Growth will be just 1% in 2009, E&Y predicted, with consumer spending restrained by rising living costs and falling house prices. Item expects inflation to remain above the target range of 1 to 3% for the next 12 months and there will also be a substantial increase in the numbers of unemployed.
"Both on the high street and in the housing market it is going to get a great deal worse before it gets better," said Professor Peter Spencer, the Item Club's chief economist.
House prices are tipped to fall 10% this year and by a further 6% in 2009.The poor state of the UK economy will also mean deep cuts in interest rates by the end of the next year.
"The weakening economy should allow the MPC to cut base rates this winter without running the risk of inflationary second-round effects. We expect base rates to fall to 4% by the end of 2009. This will help to put a cushion under the level of demand in the economy and set the scene for a recovery in 2010," Spencer added.
A new survey from the Institute of Directors echoed the ITEM Club's gloomy prognosis. It found confidence among employers has fallen to its lowest level since 1996, though a majority of companies surveyed still expect to increase their workforce next year and to boost investment.
"The sharp fall in overall business optimism is very worrying and points towards a recession," said its chief economist Graeme Leach, though he added that other results suggested the UK could still escape with a sharp slowdown over 2008-09.