Friday preview: Second estimate of US GDP to show economy contracted in Q1
The US economy may have contracted in the first quarter, according to forecasts ahead of Friday’s second estimate of gross domestic product (GDP).
Analysts predict the Bureau of Economic Analysis to revise US GDP to an annualised drop of 0.9% from an initial estimate of 0.2% growth. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.2%.
“In the past few days the BEA has admitted that it will be revising the GDP figures to eradicate any residual seasonality - since first-quarter GDP growth has averaged only 0.6% annualised over the past few years, while growth in the remaining three quarters has averaged nearer 3%,” said Paul Ashworth, chief US economist at Capital Economics.
Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen last week said that slowdown shown in the first estimate of first quarter GDP was largely due to temporary factors including the record cold weather in the Northeast and the West Coast port dispute.
“'Largely’ is a bit stronger than the ‘in part’ used in the most recent FOMC statement, suggesting that Yellen is more convinced that there will be a rebound in growth in the second-quarter and beyond,” Ashford added.
“She also seems to be buying into the idea that some of this ‘apparent’ first-quarter slowdown ‘may just be statistical noise’.”
Friday’s economic calendar also sees the release of German retail sales figures, a raft of Japanese data, the US personal consumption report and the University of Michigan’s index on US consumer confidence.
It will be quiet on the company front, with the focus on economic releases.
Friday 29 May
INTERIMS
Premier Veterinary Group
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
BlackRock Greater Europe Inv Trust, Greencoat UK Wind, Royal Bank of Scotland 11% Cum. Prf, Royal Bank of Scotland 5.5% Cum. Prf.
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
City of London Inv Trust, Picton Property Income Ltd, TwentyFour Select Monthly Income Fund Limited
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Payments (GER) (07:00)
Chicago PMI (US) (14:45)
GDP (Preliminary) (US) (13:30)
M3 Money Supply (EU) (09:00)
U. of Michigan Confidence (Final) (US) (14:55)
GMS
Golden Saint Resources Ltd (DI)
FINALS
HarbourVest Global Private Equity Limited A Shs, Indian Hotels Company Ltd. GDR (Reg S), OptiBiotix Health
ANNUAL REPORT
Biotech Growth Trust (The), HarbourVest Global Private Equity Limited A Shs
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Admiral Group, Foxtons Group , ITV
AGMS
Azonto Petroleum Ltd (DI), Flying Brands Ltd Units, Immupharma, Leyshon Resources Ltd., OJSC Magnitogorsk Iron & Steel Works GDR (Reg S), Open Joint Stock Company Inter Rao Ues GDR RegS, Richland Resources Ltd, Shanta Gold Ltd., Source Csop Markets Csop Source FTSE China A50 Ucits ETF, Tekcapital, Threadneedle UK Select Trust Limited, Total SA
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Biofrontera AG (DI)
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Confidence (09:30)
GFK Consumer Confidence (00:05)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Acacia Mining, Admiral Group, Advanced Medical Solutions Group, Aer Lingus Group, Cello Group, Centamin (DI), Centaur Media, Cobham, Dunedin Income Growth Inv Trust, EP Global Opportunities Trust, F&C Private Equity Trust, Ferrexpo, Foxtons Group , Good Energy Group, Henderson Group, Henry Boot, Highland Gold Mining Ltd., Hydrogen Group, Inmarsat, ITV, McColl's Retail Group , Morgan Advanced Materials , Morgan Sindall Group, Mortgage Advice Bureau (Holdings) , NAHL Group, Old Mutual, Partnership Assurance Group , Polymetal International, Polyus Gold International Ltd, Randgold Resources Ltd., Reckitt Benckiser Group, Regus, Senior, SIG, SimiGon Ltd. (DI), Spirax-Sarco Engineering, Weir Group
Q1
Frontline Ld, PJSC Centre For Cargo Container Traffic Transcontainer GDR (Reg S)