US initial jobless claims fall to lowest since 1969
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits last week unexpectedly fell, according to figures from the Labor Department.
US initial jobless claims declined by 10,000 from the previous week's revised level to 202,000, beating expectations for an increase to 216,000 and marking the lowest level for initial claims since 6 December 1969. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 to 212,000.
Meanwhile, the four-week moving average came in at 213,500, down 4,000 from the previous week's average, which was revised up by 250.
The four-week average is considered more reliable as it smooths out sharp fluctuations in the more volatile weekly figures, giving a more accurate picture of the health of the labour market.
Continuing claims - i.e. the number of people already collecting unemployment benefits - fell to 1.717 million from a revised 1.755m, versus expectations for a level of 1.750m. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000.
The four-week moving average declined by 8,000 to 1.743m.
Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: "This is a very welcome surprise, coming hot on the heels of significant downward revisions to claims which suggested that the trend was flat rather than rising, as prior data suggested. One week does not prove anything, but if this reading - the lowest since December 1969 - is repeated, it would suggest that the trend is still falling.
"We’re struggling with that idea, given that economic growth clearly has slowed from last year's tax-cut fuelled pace, but the data certainly suggest that our fears of a steady, shallow rise in the first half this year were overdone. Note, though, that the data over the next few weeks, and perhaps this week’s number, are subject to distortions caused by the shifting date of Easter from year to year. As always, the trend is more important than single weekly numbers."
Barclays said: "Altogether, we see the initial claims data as consistent with healthy labor market conditions and in line with the widely anticipated rebound in the pace of payroll employment in March. With activity expected to decelerate over the course of the year due to waning fiscal stimulus and lagged effects of previous tightening in monetary policy, a return of claims to 2017 levels (circa 240k) over the course of the year would be in line with our outlook."