UK consumer confidence improves a touch in September - GfK
Consumer confidence in the UK improved a touch in September although sentiment remained negative overall amid ongoing uncertainty about Brexit, according to the latest survey from GfK.
GfK's long-running consumer confidence index rose to -12 from -14 in August, coming in ahead of expectations for no change.
The survey found that householders were a smidgen more upbeat about the prospects for their personal finances, with the index for the personal financial situation over the next 12 months rising to 4 in September from 2 the month before.
The index for the personal situation over the last year also improved marginally, to 2 from -1. The index for the general economic situation over the last year increased to -32 from -34 in August, while the gauge for the same situation over the next year ticked up three points to -35.
The savings index, which is not included in the overall index score, rose two points to 32 in September.
Joe Staton, client strategy director at GfK, said: "More mixed signals this month as consumers continue to feel less than positive about the state of their personal finances and the general economy. Yes, all sub measures are higher, but they are anaemic in the case of our purchase intentions and how we view our wallets, while the results on the wider economy are still depressed.
"Since the Brexit referendum we have witnessed a long succession of negative Overall Index scores with the overall trend downwards. This month, British consumers appear to be treading water during this wait-and-see run up to October 31st. Confidence is an important indicator which typically increases as the economy expands and decreases when the economy contracts and so far, consumer confidence is holding up.
"We certainly have a long way to go to match the record low headline score of -39 witnessed during the early days of the last recession. But will it stay that way? You can almost sense people are keeping their fingers crossed."
Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said consumer sentiment is "continuing to hold up well" despite the chaos in Westminster and lingering risk of a no-deal Brexit.
"The composite index now is close to its 1974-to-present average of -9, and slightly exceeds its year-to-date average of -13. Households remain downbeat about the outlook for the overall economy, with the relevant balance still hovering at levels last seen in 2011. But households do not expect broader economic difficulties to affect them; confidence about the outlook for their personal finances is only fractionally below pre-referendum levels."
Looking ahead, Tombs said the slowdown in both employment and wage growth signalled by most surveys suggests consumers’ optimism might begin to fade.
"In addition, we doubt that the forthcoming election will lead to a swift resolution of Brexit uncertainty; indeed, the current level of consumers' confidence points on past form to another hung parliament. But with government policies set to support households' income growth next year - the National Living Wage, tax thresholds and public sector pay should all increase significantly next year - and debt servicing costs still falling, we doubt that confidence will deteriorate much."