Thursday preview: Second estimate of Q1 UK GDP expected to be revised higher
A second estimate of UK gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter expected to be revised slightly higher on Thursday.
Analysts predict the Office for National Statistics report to show GDP rose 0.4% year-on-year in the first three months of the year, compared to an earlier estimate of 0.3%. However, if forecasts are right it would still mark a slowdown from the previous quarter’s 0.6% growth.
Compared to a year ago, GDP is expected to have risen 2.5%, up from the initial estimate of 2.4%.
“The latest GDP figures show that the economy has weakened, even before the fiscal squeeze starts again in earnest,” Capital Economics analysts Roger Bootle and Jonathan Loynes said on the initial estimate.
“And worryingly, economic growth slowed sharply when the previous stage of the fiscal consolidation really got going in 2011/12. Moreover, investment could suffer from uncertainty ahead of the referendum on UK membership of the EU that will take place by the end of 2017.”
However, the analysts noted that business surveys have been more upbeat than the official GDP data.
They added that the drop into deflation was providing a boost to households’ real incomes.
The Conservatives may also soften their planned squeeze since they are yet to explain how they will go about reducing the deficit, they said.
“Overall, the big picture is that we expect the favourable combination of strong economic growth, relatively low inflation and loose monetary policy to continue for the foreseeable future – though with the caveat that a big drop in the pound might yet be required at some point to resolve the UK’s current account problems.”
Thursday 28 May
INTERIMS
Lakehouse
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Wetherspoon (J.D.)
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Avingtrans, Baronsmead VCT, Baronsmead VCT 2, Bellway, Britvic, Focusrite, Henderson European Focus Trust, Impax Asset Management Group, Keystone Inv Trust, Marston's, Matchtech Group, Titon Holdings, Town Centre Securities, Zoopla Property Group (WI)
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Canadian General Investments Ltd., HICL Infrastructure Company Ltd, Imperial Tobacco Group, Premier Energy & Water Trust
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Business Climate Indicator (EU) (10:00)
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
Economic Sentiment Indicator (EU) (10:00)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)
Pending Homes Sales (US) (15:00)
GMS
Global Investment House K.P.S.C. GDR (Reg S)
FINALS
Gable Holdings Inc., Helical Bar, Infinis Energy, PayPoint, Porta Communications , Tate & Lyle
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Amlin
SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Graphite Enterprise Trust, Premier Energy & Water Trust
AGMS
Access Intelligence, Action Hotels, Alba Mineral Resources, Allied Minds , Berkeley Mineral Resources, Centralnic Group , Electric Word, F&C Commercial Property Trust Ltd., Fair Oaks Income Fund Limited , Foresight VCT, Foresight VCT Infrastructure Shares, Foresight VCT Planned Exit Shares, Galasys, Kenmare Resources, Metminco Ltd., Mincon Group , Netplay TV, North American Income Trust (The), Northbridge Industrial Services, Octopus AIM VCT 2, Powerflute Oyj (DI), Schroder Income Growth Fund, Smart Metering Systems, Teathers Financial , Toumaz Limited, Trap Oil Group, Travis Perkins
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
IG Group Holdings, IG Group Holdings
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
BBA Mortgage Lending Figures (09:30)
GDP (output, income & expenditure) (09:30)
Index of Services (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Amlin, Capita, Cenkos Securities, Croda International, Informa, Intu Properties, Polypipe Group , Servelec Group , SQS Software Quality Systems AG
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Alkane Energy, Amec Foster Wheeler, Andrews Sykes Group, Cable & Wireless Communications, Capital & Counties Properties , Central Asia Metals, DCC, Dignity, Dillistone Group, Frenkel Topping Group, Graphite Enterprise Trust, Great Portland Estates, Hill & Smith Holdings, Hilton Food Group, Huntsworth, Inchcape, Kakuzi Ltd., Manx Telecom , Marks & Spencer Group, Maven Income & Growth 2 VCT, Menzies(John), Michelmersh Brick Holdings, Mincon Group , NMC Health, Pacific Assets Trust, Premier Farnell, Soco International, Spectris, Stobart Group Ltd., Tandem Group, Tarsus Group, TLA Worldwide , UTV Media, Whitbread
Q1
Alpha Bank GDR (Reg S) USD, Public Power GDR SA (Reg S), Signet Jewelers Ltd.