Week ahead: BoE launches 'Super Thursday' ahead of NFP in USA
The first week of August will see two keenly watched economic releases, one on each side of the Atlantic, with the Bank of England's 'Super Thursday' and Friday's non-farm payrolls (NFPs) in the US.
On Thursday, the Bank of England's policy announcement, meeting minutes from the Monetary Policy Committee and the latest Inflation Report will for the first time all be released simultaneously. A press conference will then follow.
"The MPC is doing its bit to boost UK productivity by publishing its interest rate decision, the minutes of its meeting and its quarterly Inflation Report all at the same time on Thursday," said Sam Tombs at Capital Economics.
After a unanimous vote in favour of keeping rates steady last month, the MPC is expected to be more divided this time.
At the last meeting on 7-8 July the members all agreed that the slack in the economy was shrinking and a number of members saw inflation risks as rising, with only the uncertainty caused from Greece leading to the unanimous vote.
Tombs agreed that the rate vote will probably be split for the first time this year. "But we think that a majority will wait for inflation to pick up significantly around the turn of the year before voting for a rise."
UK economists at Nomura added: "Most economic data were close to BoE expectations in May while sterling oil prices fell abruptly again, delivering a disinflationary shock. At first glance, the rise in yields and sterling would seem inconsistent with this. Tighter spreads to effective rates are loosening monetary conditions, which is akin to rate cuts and probably more pertinent.
"We expect this and the easing of tail risks to nonetheless make the MPC collectively content with a more hawkish market pricing of the hiking cycle."
On the inflation report, economists are split on whether the BoE will lower its medium-term inflation forecasts.
Around the world, Friday's US jobs report will be an even bigger event, especially as it could increase pressure on central banks on both sides of the Atlantic to raise interest rates.
The latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement suggested it was not too far from its first rate hike and economists expect the week’s various data releases, especially the NFP, will provide more evidence that the economy is ready to cope with higher interest rates.
"US data is key to our call for a September Fed hike and very important for financial markets," Danske Bank said.
Barclays Research said it expects private payrolls will expand by 200,000 in the 7 August data print, a downward revision from its previous forecast of 250,000.
"We continue to view the labor market as near normal levels and expect it to continue to improve going forward. Given the improvements in the labor market so far this year, we believe that a July employment report consistent with our forecast will keep the FOMC on track for a rate hike by the end of this year, and we maintain our call for a September start to the hiking cycle," the bank added.
Results season
Corporate earnings from London heavyweights are thinner on the ground this coming week.
HSBC gets the week off to a bang with interim results on Monday, Standard Life on Tuesday and Legal & General and Standard Chartered on Wednesday, with Thursday scheduled for reports from Aviva, Randgold and Rio Tinto.
On Monday, the market will be hoping improvements HSBC made in the first quarter can be continued as management implements its efficiency strategy around the world.
On Wednesday, fellow eastward-looking bank Standard Chartered will be expected to provide more news on its strategic review from the CEO Bill Winters, the former JP Morgan boss who replaced Peter Sands earlir this year. Any comment on the situation and outlook for China will in the light of recent market turbulence will also be closely followed.
On Friday, William Hill will be looking to bounce back from first quarter hit by adverse sports results.
Monday 03 August
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Fidessa Group, Intertek Group, Keller Group, Telit Communications, Trinity Mirror, Ultra Electronics Holdings
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Electronic Data Processing
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Verizon Communications
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Next
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Akers Biosciences, Inc. , Camco Clean Energy, Dods (Group) , Vedanta Resources
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Aveva Group, CML Microsystems, De La Rue, Dee Valley Group, Establishment Inv Trust, Homeserve, JD Sports Fashion, Next, TalkTalk Telecom Group , United Utilities Group
Tuesday 04 August
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Clarke (T.), Direct Line Insurance Group, Fresnillo, Hexaware Technologies Ltd, Just Eat , LSL Property Services, Meggitt, Pendragon, Rotork, SDL, Standard Life, Travis Perkins, Zotefoams
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Q2
Hexaware Technologies Ltd. GDS (Reg S)
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Q1
Canaccord Genuity Group Inc.
Wednesday August 05
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BBA Aviation, Ferrexpo, Komercni Banka A.S.GDR (Level 1), Legal & General Group, London Stock Exchange Group, Novae Group, OJSC Novolipetsk Steel GDS (Reg S), Soco International, Spirax-Sarco Engineering, StatPro Group, Unite Group
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Boeing Co
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Q2
Komercni Banka A.S.GDR (Level 1), OJSC Novolipetsk Steel GDS (Reg S)
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Tri-Star Resources
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PHSC
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Canaccord Genuity Group Inc., Reabold Resources, red24, Schroder UK Growth Fund
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National Grid, Ventus 2 VCT, Ventus 2 VCT 'C' Shares, Ventus VCT, Ventus VCT 'C' Shares, Vodafone Group
Thursday 06 August
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Aggreko, Cobham, Friends Life Group Limited , Genel Energy, Hellenic Telecom Industries SA ADS, Hill & Smith Holdings, Inmarsat, Kennedy Wilson Europe Real Estate , Mondi, Old Mutual, Rio Tinto, RSA Insurance Group, Spirent Communications, Vitec Group
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ITE Group, WH Smith
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Anglo American, Avon Rubber, Blackrock Throgmorton Trust, Domino's Pizza Group, Hiscox Limited (DI), Inchcape, Independent Inv Trust, Japan Residential Investment Co Ltd., Jupiter Fund Management , McColl's Retail Group , Melrose Industries, Microgen, One Media IP Group, Polar Capital Global Financials Trust, Relx plc, St. Modwen Properties, Telecity Group, Triple Point Income VCT, Tyman
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Barclays, BP, Custodian Reit , Fair Oaks Income Fund Limited , JPMorgan Claverhouse Inv Trust, Unilever
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New Car Registrations (09:00)
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Q2
Hellenic Telecom Industries SA ADS, Inmarsat
Q3
GW Pharmaceuticals
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Greene King
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Foresight 4 VCT C, Tristel
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Aberforth Geared Income Trust, British Smaller Companies VCT
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Aurum Mining, Catlin Group Ltd., Edge Performance VCT 'C' Shares, Invesco Asia Trust, Investec, Mytrah Energy Ltd, Sirius Petroleum, Taihua, Zamano
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Caledonia Investments, Dairy Crest Group
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1pm, Aberdeen New Dawn Investment Trust, Cayenne Trust, Coral Products, Creston, Games Workshop Group, Halfords Group, Hargreave Hale AIM VCT 2, Latham (James), Northern Bear, Pennon Group, Plastics Capital, QinetiQ Group, RPC Group, SABMiller
Friday 07 August
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Catlin Group Ltd., William Hill
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Jubilee Platinum
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Real Good Food
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Central Rand Gold Ltd, Market Tech Holdings Limited
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