Spanish centre-right PP to be forced into multiple regional coalitions
Spain´s centre-right party PP obtained the most votes in the country´s municipal elections, and a similar outcome was expected in the regional contests, which - pending full results for the regional elections - may allow for many of the current economic policies to be kept in place.
However, the PP was expected to be forced into coalitions in most of the country´s regional parliaments. Indeed, it lost far more votes than its main rival, the Socialist party. Versus 2011 the ruling centre-right PP was estimated to have lost about 2.5 million voters, in comparison to the 630,000 shed by the socialists.
According to final data from Spain´s interior ministry the PP won 6,014,428 votes in Sunday´s municipal elections, or 27.03% of the vote, versus 5,570,629 (25.04%) for the Socialist PSOE party.
Read more: Live coverage of the Spanish local and regional elections 2015
The Socialists´ showing was relatively unexpected. Some observers had been worrying the PSOE could even disintegrate if it has a poor showing in the general elections, which some experts believe may be called for the end of 2015.
As of 22:43 data for the regional parliamentary elections, which are the responsibility of the regional governments, had yet to be made available.
Nonetheless, the far-left Podemos or like-minded political parties appeared to have swept into power in Barcelona´s city council. That was not wholly unexpected.
Likewise, control of Madrid´s City hall still appeared to be up for grabs. Part of the importance of that was that Esperanza Aguirre, seen by many as leading the most conservative wing of the PP, was thought by many observers to oppose the PP´s national leader, Mariano Rajoy.
Sunday´s elections were also seen as key for the general elections which were expected to be held later in the year, although not necesarily for the reasons which one might think.
Firstly, the results of the regional and local elections were thought to have a strong component of 'protest votes'. That might change when the national elections came around. The competence - or lack thereof - of the new political parties would be closely watched ahead of the national elections.
Nonetheless, one should not underestimate the economic implications of the present elections. Regional governments are responsible for over 50% of public expenditures and the central government for less than 30% of outlays, if one excludes social security and debt service, Barclays pointed out in a research report issued on 22 May.
Secondly, the main political parties may not want to be too closely associated with the PP ahead of the general elections. That may lead to a certain degree of paralysis in policy-making ahead of the elections.
Third, the main regional parties in the north-eastern region of Catalonia, Esquerra Republicana and Convergencia i Unio, stood to see their ability to push for a referendum on independence heavily eroded, experts told Sharecast.
Voters in Spain´s second most important region in economic terms were expected to take the opportunity to support alternatives seen as having fewer links with the establishment in Madrid, such as Podemos or Ciudadanos, even if they were not overtly pro-independence.
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