Date: Thursday 12 Jun 2008
LONDON (ShareCast) - A spokesman for GlaxoSmithKline says the stock's true level is between 1250p and 1300p, which is unrealistic. The industry will lose £2bn in the next five years as the "generics cliff" (as the industry calls it) approaches.
GSK reckons it will face these challenges before its peers, particularly in the neuroscience and diabetes divisions. By the time everyone else is suffering, GSK will be better placed, so the argument goes. That may be true, but the patent for its asthma blockbuster Advair expires in 2010, and so far there the company does not have a potential blockbuster in the offing, relying instead on a package of treatments. Investors will not have a happy time with GSK in the short term. A recovery could take some time. Sell, says the Independent.
Many of the City's finest have bought into the turnaround plan of new(ish) chief executive Simon Fox and the argument (however irrational) that HMV could benefit from being the "last man standing". But the fact is that HMV now looks very expensive. With its shares at 125½p, the retailer is now trading on a forward price earnings ratio of almost 14 times - a substantial premium to the rest of the sector. Now is a good time to tune out of the shares. Sell, says the Telegraph.
Some buyers will no doubt suffer an allergic reaction when presented with a property stock. However, First Property Group is solid and worth a punt, says the Independent.
At last night’s record 569½p, up 28½p – against the 195p at which it floated two years ago – Lamprell trades at a steep-seeming 24 times this year’s earnings, and 18 times next, and offers a negligible yield. However, given the potential for further contract wins and earnings upgrades, that rating should fall. The Time’s advice last September was to buy on weakness at 408p. That remains the case.
Rensburg Sheppards has much to recommend it: high operating margins, a shift to higher-margin discretionary funds, which now account for 70 per cent of the total, and a strong balance sheet (debt has fallen to less than £40 million). However, even at ten times current-year earnings, and yielding nearly 5 per cent, the shares, whose liquidity is hampered by Investec’s 47 per cent stake, are not obviously cheap. Pass, says the Times.
Although it deserves to trade at a slight premium, at these levels it seems expensive to start buying Petrofac shares. By all means, pick up more shares on any dips but, in general, the Telegraph recommends holding on for now.
UBC Media already has £3.5m in cash on its balance sheet, and coupled with the £15m it is expected to raise from GTN, the cash position will be bigger than the group's market capitalisation. At present valuation that would render the production group, which is the biggest independent provider of programmes for BBC radio, as worthless. Clearly that is barmy, and the group deserves a re-rating. Buy, says the Independent.
At 173½p, or ten times current-year earnings, Hampson continues to suffer from poor sentiment on its sector, but given double-digit earnings growth, low debt and the switch towards composites, that treatment appears to be undeserved. Buy, says the Times.
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