Date: Tuesday 17 Jun 2008
LONDON (ShareCast) - The big question for Majestic Wine is how it moves on after Tim How’s departure. Sensibly, Steve Lewis, his replacement – who has been at the company for 20 years – is intending more of the same in terms of strategy.
Like most retailers Majestic’s price/earnings ratio had become over-inflated but it now trades below 11 times forward earnings. As a higher-quality alternative to most non-food retailers, Majestic deserves better. It is also trading at too big a discount to the supermarkets says the FT.
Majestic has a loyal customer base, a sound balance sheet and low operational gearing. However, 217p, or 12 times this year’s earnings, still feels steep. The Times advised “avoid” at 270p in January, and that remains the case.
Majestic is strong and has good promotions to persuade punters through the doors. The problem is that it is a retailer and therefore toxic in these markets. A weaker sterling is also bad news. Sell agrees the Independent.
After fund manager BlueBay's profit warning, broker Cazenove calculates the group is trading at 18.5 times 2008 estimated earnings, well above the average for its peer group of 13.5. Looking further out, BlueBay should prosper as the economic cycle turns and investors rediscover an appetite for debt. Its funds may also be able to use the current difficulties to pick up high-quality credit on the cheap. But it is hard to imagine the share price will recover quickly. This is a long-term investment at best says the FT.
The Times adds that BlueBay's net inflows to its funds over the past five months have been $3.5 billion, against a forecast $2.5 billion. That advance – which underpins the longer-term investment case – suggests that institutions continue to value BlueBay’s debt market expertise. Even so, at 283p, or 18 times forward earnings, the shares, which suffer from illiquidity, are too dear. Pass.
Oil explorer Soco is making steady progress with its portfolio of assets in West Africa, but it is the company’s developments in Vietnam that remain key to investor sentiment. That includes the longer-term issue of how Soco will commercialise the production from TGD prospect should its potential be met. At yesterday’s £18.60, the shares are arguably according little value to TGD for now – which is perhaps sensible given that a conclusive result, or a potential sale of Soco’s Vietnamese assets is now not likely before next year. All the same, hold says the Times.
Broker KBC says that with oil at $100 a barrel, the net asset value of Soco would give a stock price of close to £23 a share, but that the unplanned extra drilling will have a "significant impact" on costs and that investors would be wise to reduce their exposure. While investors have done well with Soco in the past year, the next few months could be trickier. Hold for now says the Independent.
In terms of valuation, property group Safeland looks pretty appealing: with its net asset value of 114p, the group is undervalued and claims to have no problems with banking facilities to fund future buys, while others in the market are having trouble raising funds. Safeland looks like a useful punt. However, the herd mentality of the market will probably mean that the group's stock will struggle. Sell says the Independent.
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