Construction & Materials(2350)

Change Today

Price Down-230.26

Value

2,501.17

Friday tips round-up: Greene King, Centrica, Game

Date: Friday 04 Jul 2008

One factor in pub owner and brewer Greene King’s favour is its financial position. It recently refinanced on good terms, removing any credit risk until 2012. It also revealed that it has secured agreement in principle from HM Revenue & Customs to convert to a real estate investment trust without having to undergo a demerger.

The pub sector may be in the eye of a perfect storm and shares may have further to fall. But investors seeking long-term value could do worse than buy into Greene King says the Times.

At about 7 times 2009 earnings, Greene King shares are trading in line with the sector average. But, given the uncertainty about how bad the slowdown in consumer spending will be, more risk-averse investors might want to steer clear of pubs until a clearer picture emerges adds the FT.

Worse trading remains around the corner for Greene King, despite easier comparables following the first year of the smoking ban. If you want to be in pubs this is a good place to be, but we recommend sticking to more defensive stocks for the time being. Avoid says the Telegraph.

Centrica has one big problem. With 16m customers, Britain’s biggest retail supplier of gas and electricity lacks enough of its own power stations and gas supplies to serve them. That has left its shares trading at a significant discount to better-hedged rivals with more access to their own, more diversified power supplies. Even so, the company is unlikely to shy away from raising retail prices in the next two months – a step that will help to protect its short-term margins. The shares are worth holding says the Times.

Bears argue that computer games are a cyclical business and that Game is at or very near the top of the cycle. Competition is also increasing, as the likes of HMV and Tesco step up their interest, putting pressure on prices. Game may be the high street star for now, but it will be difficult to keep this up as the consumer slowdown gathers pace. Avoid says the Times.

The FT adds that, crucially, consumers still seem prepared to shell out for consoles and games, even in the US. Game trades on a price/earnings multiple for 2009 of about 10 times, cheap enough to attract anyone prepared to bet the economic slowdown will do little to discourage the stay-at-home console geek.

UBM shares are trading on 9.4 times forecast earnings, yielding 4.7% and look decent value for the long haul. If one takes the 506p that Providence Equity, Carlyle Group and Hellman & Friedman have offered for Informa, and implies the same valuation to UBM, it would be worth 30% more than it is at present. That may be optimistic, but a more realistic price target is 604p suggests the Telegraph. Buy.

Amec issued a trading statement yesterday saying that 2008 Ebitda margin expectations had edged up to 6.5% from 6%. Net cash will exceed £600m, which will enable the group to "make selective acquisitions". There are not many sectors that are performing like oil. As other markets suffer, so more buyers will be attracted to the black stuff and companies that operate in the oil market, like Amec. There is more room for growth. Buy says the Independent.

Galliford Try's
chief executive, Greg Fitzgerald, says that things are getting tougher in house building, but points out that the market misses the fact that the company is a much bigger contractor. Brokers say that pre-tax profit this year will be £60m, resulting in earnings per share of 11.1p, changing to £39m and 7.4p next year respectively. Cautious hold says the Independent.






Note 1: Prices and trades are provided by Digital Look Corporate Solutions and are delayed by at least 15 minutes.

 

Price Data

Price 2,501.17 Price Down
Change Today -230.26
15-Oct-08 Close 2,731.43

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