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Thursday tips focus: Sainsbury, Land of Leather, Serco

Date: Thursday 09 Oct 2008

Sainsbury's trading statement yesterday was better than most had been expecting – not that you'd know it from the reaction. Like-for-like sales growth of 4.3pc in the second quarter was better than that of Tesco, suggesting the grocer has fared far better than most people had feared. All in all, the numbers are encouraging, but not enough for the Telegraph’s Questor to become a firm buyer. Hold.

Making a punt on a loss-making sofa chain in the face of arguably the worst recession since the Great Depression is a dangerous game. Land of Leather's challenge is simply to survive. The furniture company has no debt and a management team that has put more than £3m of its own money on the line. Unfortunately, there is little the management can do apart from cut costs and hope for the best. The stock is a high-risk option reliant on a housing and consumer recovery. But if the company survives, the shares will be worth substantially more than 9p, says the FT.

There are certain companies on the London Stock Exchange whose shares can be trusted to track each other with uncanny ease: BP and Shell, Aviva and Prudential or, in the case of support services, Capita and Serco. Capita’s and Serco’s profits should rise considerably faster than those of the wider support services sector - for the latter, earnings are forecast to grow 19 per cent this year, and 18 per cent next. Yesterday’s sharp late-session fall in Capita - down 8 per cent - did much to narrow the gap between the two. Even so, at 377½p, down 15p, or less than 15 times 2009 earnings, Serco remains a solid hold, says the Times.

Interest rate cuts are normally good for fixed-income investors but not for BH Macro. Shares in the FTSE 250 closed-end fund - which trades government bonds, currency and interest-rate derivatives - fell a further 3 per cent yesterday, taking its cumulative loss in the past two weeks to 18 per cent. In the interim, the fixed-income bull market shows no signs of abating. For that reason, yesterday’s £12.50, down 39p, looks a good point of entry for long-term investors, says the Times.

The commodities market has turned against Aricom, spun out of Peter Hambro Mining several years ago. Analysts have been busy downgrading their expectations for the steel makers, while the likelihood of far slower Chinese growth has also dented sentiment. In Aricom's case the sell-off has gone rather too far, to the extent that buying the stock at these levels means investors are getting the growth projects thrown in pretty much for free. For his part, Jay Hambro insists the market for iron ore remains robust, particularly for those, like Aricom, who already have access to infrastructure that can transport ore to China at low cost. The Telegraph’s Questor agrees, and while recent events may mean investors have to wait longer for the upside, it believes it is still there for the taking. Buy.

With the persistently high cost of its raw materials - specifically, milk and cocoa - providing pressure, there is a risk that Thorntons’ current-year profit forecasts will prove too high. At 115¼p, up 3¼p, or 11 times earnings, sell, says the Times.

Note 1: Prices and trades are provided by Digital Look Corporate Solutions and are delayed by at least 15 minutes.

 

Price Data

Price 3,493.18 Price Down
Change Today -145.31
21-Nov-08 Close 3,493.18

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