Broker tips: Barclays, Lloyds, RBS, Beazley
The exposure of UK banks to China and oil should not be a material concern and the prospects for dividends have improved but the likelihood of later rate hikes in the UK means their shares are now worth less, HSBC analysts said.
Banks
3,895.51
17:09 19/04/24
Barclays
185.84p
16:40 19/04/24
Beazley
661.50p
16:45 19/04/24
FTSE 100
7,895.85
16:59 19/04/24
FTSE 250
19,391.30
17:09 19/04/24
FTSE 350
4,341.08
17:09 19/04/24
FTSE All-Share
4,296.41
17:08 19/04/24
Insurance (non-life)
3,637.32
17:09 19/04/24
Lloyds Banking Group
50.92p
16:34 19/04/24
NATWEST GROUP
276.70p
16:34 19/04/24
To back-up their claim as regards China and crude oil, the broker pointed to then current-pricing for Barclays, Lloyds and RBS's credit default swaps.
"UK banks’ exposure to the twin market drivers of oil and China doesn’t look big enough to cause material concerns; CDS spreads point to a similar conclusion," analysts Peter Toeman and Robin Down said in a research note sent to clients.
In parallel, the "about turn" by the Financial Policy Committee meant the requirement for lenders´ capital cushions, or so-called Core Tier 1 Equity, of 12% was "materially lower than earlier estimates because of contingent capital, the stress-test regime and structural reform," they said.
Of Britain´s seven large banks, the majority were above or just below that threshold, with only Barclays an outlier at 11.1%.
Even in that last case, they added that: "Barclays’ strong showing in the 2015 stress test suggests that its regulatory requirements could be lower than peers."
Hence, the outlook for dividends from UK banks had improved "materially", HSBC said. Nonetheless, and due to the impact which later rate increases would have on their net interest margins HSBC lowered its target prices on Barclays from 315p to 230p, on Lloyds from 103p to 80p and for RBS from 360p to 260p.
Toeman and Down kept their recommendation on shares of Barclays and Lloyds at 'buy' and that on RBS at 'hold'.
Insurance group Beazley was rated at ‘hold’ by Peel Hunt on Thursday after the company reported its full-year results.
Peel Hunt said the pre-tax profit of £284, up 8% year-on-year, was slightly below its estimates of $289m but ahead of the company’s expectations of $278m.
Total revenue rose 1% to $1.79bn, as high reserve releases and a benign claims environment partly offset lower-than-expected investment results.
Beazley said it will pay a second interim dividend of 6.6p - up from 6.2p in 2014 - taking full-year dividends for the year to 9.9p. A special dividend of 18.4p would also be paid.
“The special dividend is a better than expected 18.4p (Peel Hunt estimate of 13.6p; consensus 11p) which combined with a final of 6.6p (Peel Hunt estimate of 7p) offers a 7% final yield,” according to Peel Hunt.
“The rate outlook is in line with expectations (circa -2%) and the outlook for returns states an ongoing competitive market with current return on equity unlikely to be sustainable."