Le Pen or Melenchon election victory would trigger a correction, Citi says

Alexander Bueso Sharecast | 21 Apr, 2017 11:37 | | |

The most likely outcome of the French elections was a victory for either the centrist or centre-right candidates, Emmanuele Macron and Francois Fillon, strategists at Citi said.

Yet there is a non-negligible risk that either the far-right FN's Marine Le Pen or the far-left Jean Luc Melenchon might come out on top, triggering a correction in both European and French stocks of between 5% to 10%, the investment bank said.

Citi put the odds of a Macron victory at 35% while the probability of Fillon overcoming was seen at 30%.

Le pen's chances of becoming president were pegged at 25% with Melenchon at 10%.

Conversely, a win for either Fillon or Macron could entail between 10% to 20% upside to the end of 2017.

"A risk-off outcome would mean our Overweight stance on Continental Europe would suffer. US equities should outperform, as in the 2012 EMU crisis. Amongst sectors, defensives are likely to outperform."

More news

26 Apr US close: Markets fall as investors react to Trump tax plan

US stocks were down on Wednesday as investors digested the details of President Donald Trump’s tax reform.

26 Apr Le Pen's long odds attract new punters to French political betting

Gamblers have been piling in to bet on far-right candidate Marine Le Pen wrestling a surprise win over centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron next month, according to bookmakers.

26 Apr Thursday preview: Dovish ECB expected, WPP could turn cautious

The European Central Bank is forecast to leave its main policies unchanged in its meets this week, following a March meeting when the market made a rather hawkish interpretation of the outcome.

26 Apr Commodities: Crude bounces off lows as EIA data shows fall in US inventories

Crude futures bounced off earlier lows on Wednesday afternoon as US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed a surprise fall in inventories last week.

26 Apr Twitter shares jump as traffic continues to accelerate in Q1

Twitter continued to be mired in red ink during the first quarter despite continued and accelerating growth of activity on its site, amid revenue headwinds.

26 Apr US open: Stocks little changed as investors eye Trump tax announcement

US stocks were little changed on Wednesday as investors awaited a speech on tax reform by President Donald Trump.

26 Apr Small cap news round-up

Glanbia is to sell a 60% stake in its Irish dairy business, to Glanbia Co-operative Society for €112m.

26 Apr FTSE 250 movers: Aggreko gains ahead of update, Tullow gushes lower

London's FTSE 250 index was up 0.5% to 19,670.48 in afternoon trade.

26 Apr WTI futures spike higher following DoE inventory data

US crude oil inventories fell sharply last week despite rising imports as product stockpiles continued to build.

26 Apr FTSE 100 movers: Standard Chartered rallies on results, GKN drops

London's FTSE 100 was up 0.2% to 7,287.12 in afternoon trade as investors digested comments from US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who confirmed that Donald Trump plans to cut corporate tax to 15% from 35%.