Conor Coyle Sharecast | 02 Nov, 2016 14:34 - Updated: 15:20 | | |
Digital Look provides live coverage of the 2016 US Presidential Election after Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton to become president-elect on Wednesday. Financial markets have been shocked by the unexpected victory for the republican, whose victories in key swing states such as Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania gave him a comprehensive win.
The Trump administration plans to work with Congress to repeal the Affordable Care Act put in place by Barack Obama, according to a document posted on the presidential transition website in which some of the main points were outlined.
The ACA will be replaced with a solution that includes Health Savings Accounts and “returns the historic role in regulating health insurance to the States”.
“To maximise choice and create a dynamic market for health insurance, the administration will work with Congress to enable people to purchase insurance across state lines.
Police made 29 arrests in Portland, Oregon on Thursday night as thousands of protesters were involved in violence, after an initial peaceful demonstration against president-elect Donald Trump.
A second night of protests erupted in major cities across the United States after Trump was declared the winner of the presidential election early on Wednesday morning. Read the full article here.
Many of the world’s largest fund managers said they were shifting funds towards the S&P 500 following the result of the 2016 US elections, but in a possible sign of caution, the majority opted to stay put on their accumulated cash piles. According to Bank of America-Merrill Lynch’s ‘flash’ Fund Managers Survey, published on 10 November, 59% of investors said the election victory by Trump would not affect their cash holdings. Another 21% said they would cut their cash positions, while 20% said they would increase it. The three most popular post-election trades were: buy S&P 50 (30%), buy gold/sell risky asset (27%), buy US dollar (10%).
Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg has come out in defence of his company after allegations that the social network contributed to the rise of Donald Trump.
Data produced by various critics highlighted that a vast number of fake news stories were being shared via the site with a lack of follow-up stories to negate the fabricated claims.
"The idea that fake news on Facebook influenced the election in any way is a pretty crazy idea," he said. Read the full article here.
President-elect Donald Trump´s team was looking at Texas Republican Representative Jeb Hensarling as a potential candidate to take over at the helm of the US Treasury, the Wall Street Journal reported citing people familiar with the matter.
Hensarling was the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee and had served on that same panel for more than a decade. Read the full article here.
While they wait for clear details on President-elect Trump's policies and priorities investors are continuing to reposition their portfolios on the back of what information they have so far, rotating out of big-cap tech names and into the likes of JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs. In the process, the Dow Jones Industrial has notched up a new all-time high at 18,811.
US sells $12bn of 30-year debt at a yield of 2.902%, versus 2.470% the last time around. The bid-to-cover ratio slips from 2.34 to 2.11 and the percentage of indirect bidders (other central banks) from 63.6% to 54.5%, the least since February.
US 10-year Treasury auction this afternoon in focus for some. Analysing different possible scenarios after the elections, VTB's Neil MacKinnon references estimates from Moody's Analytics according to whom 'Trump-nomics' would see US GDP surge 3.7% in 2017, with growth tapering off to 0.6% in 2018 and subsequently sliding into recession over 2019 and 2020. Consumer price inflation meanwhile would jump to 5.4% year-on-year in 2018 and the Fed funds rate would climb to 6.3% in that same year. Nonetheless, Moody's also acknowledged there were other soft-Trump and deficit neutral scenarios. "Of course, in the same way that the impact of Brexit was over-exaggerated (with consensus economic forecasts of the short-term impact on the UK economy being proved wrong), it is also possible that these sorts of apocalyptic analyses are also wrong," MacKinnon said.
UKIP leader Nigel Farage has claimed that he was a factor in Donald Trump winning the US presidential election on Tuesday.
The controversial politician, who stepped down as leader of the right-wing populist party only to be installed as interim head after Diana James resigned, described himself as a "catalyst" for the rise in popularity of the New York businessman.
"I'm the catalyst for the downfall of the Blairites, the Clintonites, the Bushites, and all these dreadful people who work hand in glove with Goldman Sachs and everybody else, have made themselves rich, and ruined our countries," Farage said during the interview. "I couldn't be happier." Read the full article here.
The Philadelphia Stock Exchange's KBW Bank Index continues to barrel higher, tacking on a 4.22% gain to Wednesday's surge which took it past technical resistance and saw it set a new 52-week high. It was last trading at 82.16. In parallel, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note is six basis points higher at 2.12% after jumping by 20 basis points yesterday. Those on similarly-dated Gilts were up 10 basis points to 1.36%. Spanish yields were higher by 13 basis points to 1.40%. Both German and Spanish yields barely reacted on Wednesday.
Yen is headed lower, Shusuke Yamada and Shuichi Ohsaki at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch said in a research report penciled yesterday. Yen was still seen falling to 105 and 115 against the US dollar by the end of 2016 and 2017, respectively. The two analysts also stuck to their targets for the Nikkei-225, for 16,000 and 20,000 over each of those two time frames. "The Republican Party swept the presidential and congressional elections in the US, and the autumn yen strength scenario has materialized. The results of the election are leading to JPY strength and weaker equity prices in the short term, and have boosted medium-term uncertainty. However, it has been our view that a Republican sweep could be bullish USD/JPY medium-term," they said.
"Gold reverses surge as markets stabilise, USD and equities rise; there is sufficient uncertainty to reinvigorate gold," HSBC's James Steel says. Wider budget deficits are traditionally gold-bullish, he explains. As well, any shift in expectations for a December rate hike could still propel gold, he said, adding "heavy financial market volatility, if it continues, may lead investors to seek out gold afresh".
Donald Trump will pay a visit to the White House on Thursday to meet current president Barack Obama, in an attempt to facilitate the former's transition to the position in January of next year.
Obama campaigned vigorously for defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton throughout her campaign to win the Oval Office, repeatedly calling into question the temperament and fitness to serve of the New York businessman. However, the outgoing president said that he will aid Trump in any way he can as he becomes the 45th leader of the US.
"Eight years ago, President Bush and I had some pretty significant differences, but President Bush's team could not have been more professional or more gracious in making sure we had a smooth transition," Obama said. "So I have instructed my team to follow the example that President Bush's team set."
Vermont senator Bernie Sanders has vowed to work with Donald Trump after the Republican was elected as the 45th president of the United States on Tuesday, but promised to fiercely oppose any policies that contained "racist, sexist, xenophobic and anti-environment" sentiments.
Sanders had previously been highly critical of Trump's actions and policies during the Republican's campaign, and actively campaigned on behalf of former Democratic primary rival Hillary Clinton ahead of the election.
"To the degree that Mr. Trump is serious about pursuing policies that improve the lives of working families in this country, I and other progressives are prepared to work with him," he added.
"[Wednesday's] intra-day swing of 10Y US [Treasury note yields] was at a gravity-defying 40bp, starting around the time of Donald Trump’s victory speech. More than half of the increase in the nominal yield was driven by the increase in inflation compensation. Nevertheless, uncertainty regarding economic and foreign policies makes it dangerous to extrapolate yesterday's momentum forward, in our view. This implies a rather choppy curve momentum," says UniCredit.
Thursday provided global media outlets with their first opportunity to react in paper to what happened in the United States over the past two days, and some are more scathing than others. Read the global reaction here.
Commenting on Wednesday's price action in 10-year US Treasuries, Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank highlighted the "stunning" 34.6 basis point reversal in yields from their lows during the Asian session, musing that it was "one to watch and could be something the Republican's need to bare in mind if they go for broke on stimulus." He adds: "What the Fed looks like in 18 months is also a big question. The Republicans and Trump have been very keen to clip their wings and the spectre of them becoming less independent - perhaps after Yellen's term ends in 2018 - must surely be a possibility."
The US Republican party’s ‘sweep’ of the executive and legislative branches of their government means a mandate for change and less ‘political gridlock’ on Capitol Hill, the world’s main debt ratings agency said. “Hence, the president-elect and the Republicans have a mandate for and ability to effect policy change more easily than with a more divided government in recent years,” Standard& Poor’s said. The analysts also called attention to how Trump had run on a platform which was at odds with some policies of the traditional Republican leadership and its historical base. However, the ratings agency highlighted how Trump had reached out to the other parties following the elections, while Obama and former secretary Clinton had emphasised “the importance of unity during the transition”. Nonetheless, bridging divides would be a challenging task, the agency said. In the same statement following the surprise results of the elections, S&P reaffirmed its AA+ rating on the long-term debt of the United States, together with a ‘stable’ outlook.
Major cities in the United States have been rocked by large protests against the election of Donald Trump to the White House.
New York, Chicago, San Francisco and Philadelphia are among the cities which have seen large amounts of people gathering around major streets and buildings in a statement against the alleged racism, sexism and xenophobia espoused by the winner of Tuesday's election.
This concludes today's coverage of the 2016 US presidential elections, so until tomorrow then, and as always, a big thank you to all our readers.
FTSE 250 engineer Meggitt reported a drop in full-year pre-tax profit on Tuesday as it highlighted a difficult oil and gas market, but the group lifted its dividend.
Wealth management group St James’s Place hiked its total dividend 18% as it reported a strong rise in net asset value for 2016.
Transport operator Go-Ahead, which owns 65% of the Southern franchise through Govia Thameslink Railway (GTR), reported a drop in first-half pre-tax profit as operating profit from the rail division slumped due to strike action, and the company lowered its full-year expectations for the bus and rail divisions.
Miner Fresnillo gave an upbeat outlook for this year after more than doubling its profits in 2016 as revenues surged due to record gold and silver production, high precious metals prices and the devaluation of the Mexican peso against the dollar.
As it posted largely pre-announced annual results, Taylor Wimpey said it had made a "very good" start to 2017 and suggested the UK housing market will remain supportive for its bump dividend programme for some time.
London open The FTSE 100 is predicted to edge around eight points higher on Tuesday, according to pre-market trading.
FTSE 100 engineer GKN posted a 12% jump in full-year pre-tax profit as sales rose and the company expressed confidence over its prospects for 2017.
Stocks in London were set to open higher, taking their cue from a positive session on Wall Street where the Dow notched its 12th consecutive record close, as investors looked ahead to US President Donald Trump's address to Congress later in the day.
Solid economic growth and strong tax receipts since the Brexit vote have put Philip Hammond on course to announce a drop in government borrowing when he presents his spring budget next week, a leading thinktank has predicted. The Resolution Foundation said it would be the first time since March 2014 that a chancellor could stand at the dispatch box and announce borrowing will be lower – not higher – than previously thought. - Guardian
US stocks shook off early losses to end higher, with the Dow notching up a record close for the 12th session in a row as President Trump teased investors with talk of a “big” announcement on infrastructure when he addresses Congress on Tuesday.