Thursday preview: ECB to provide further details on QE programme
The European Central Bank (ECB) will on Thursday provide further details of its €1.1trn quantitative easing (QE) programme.
The ECB’s Governing Council will outline its package of €60bn-a-month of asset purchases which is being launched to bring inflation back towards the target of just below 2%.
On Monday, Eurostat said euro-area consumer prices fell 0.3% in February, up from a decline of 0.6% in January.
The central bank also announces its latest policy decision at 12:45 GMT, with analysts expecting no new surprises.
ECB President Mario Draghi holds a press conference afterwards in Cyprus at 13:30.
Rabobank said that the ECB has already released plenty of details on QE at the 22 January meeting, press statement and monetary policy accounts, so is unlikely to provide many new insights on Thursday.
Credit Suisse believes the first bond purchases are likely to begin on 6 March or 9 March.
“Discussions around the blackout period, the list of the agencies qualifying for purchases, and the way securities lending will be conducted will be particularly in focus at the press conference,” the bank said.
Credit Suisse also noted that the next scheduled emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) review for Greece will also be held. Two-thirds majority would be required at the Governing Council to take any action.
Meanwhile, IG analyst David Madden said March will prove to be a difficult month for the single currency as the ECB embarks on QE.
The euro neared an 11-year low against the dollar at around $1.1125 on Wednesday, a day ahead of the ECB’s meeting. The euro also reached a seven-year low against the sterling at £0.7253.
Meanwhile, the ECB also releases its latest macroeconomic projections at the press conference.
HICP inflation is expected to be revised downwards sharply from 0.7% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, well above our estimates of -0.1% in 2015 and 1.2% in 2016. Economic growth is forecast to be revised upwards slightly from 1% in 2015 and
1.5% in 2016.
Thursday 4 March
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Aviva 8 3/8% Cumulative Irrd Preference 1, Brewin Dolphin Holdings, CareTech Holding, CRH, Domino Printing Sciences, Domino's Pizza Group, Electronic Data Processing, General Accident (Prf), Lavendon Group, Northern Electricity Prf, Rights & Issues Inv Trust Capital Shares, Rights & Issues Inv Trust Income Shares, Rio Tinto, RSA Insurance Group, Sanderson Group, Spirent Communications, St. Modwen Properties, SWP Group
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Gooch & Housego
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Alumasc Group, Ashmore Group, Colefax Group, Darty, Genus, Green Reit, Hansard Global, Hays, Ibex Global Solutions, JPMorgan Mid Cap Inv Trust, Kier Group, MJ Gleeson, National Westminster 9%pf, Oxford Instruments, Park Group, Redrow, Renishaw, Ruffer Investment Company Ltd Red PTG Pref Shares
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Brunner Inv Trust, Premier Energy & Water Trust
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Non-farm productivity (US) (Q4)
Initial jobless claims (US)(13:30)
FINALS
32Red, Admiral Group, Aggreko, Arrow Global Group, Cobham, Communisis, CSR, Dairy Farm International Holdings Ltd. (Singapore), Empresaria Group,H&T Group, Headlam Group, Hongkong Land Holding Ltd. (Sing.Reg), Hunting, Irish Continental Group Units, Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd (Singapore Reg), London Stock Exchange Group, LSL Property Services, Mandarin Oriental International (Singapore), Nichols, Schroders, Schroders (Non-Voting),
Q3
Betfair Group
Q4
CSR
SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
River and Mercantile Group
AGMS
Avesco Group, CQS Diversified Fund Ltd Ord NPV £, Henderson Diversified Income Ltd., Jersey Electricity 'A' Shares, JPMorgan Russian Securities
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
BoE Bank Rate decision (09:30)