Macron impresses in French election debate, but final result 'unpredictable'
After a televised debate between all French presidential candidates, Emmanuel Macron remained at the top of poll ratings and ultra-right challenger Marine Le Pen was felt to have performed badly.
Several surveys found the National Front leader did not perform particularly well and after losing her cool several times was rated only the fourth most convincing candidate, with 11% of the share of viewers in an Elabe poll.
Centre-right frontrunner Macron was judged one of the most convincing in the debate, with 21% of viewers, and felt to be the candidate with the best programme by 23% of viewers.
Roughly 6.3m people watched the debate, Agence France-Presse reported, compared with more than 10m for the first debate last month, with marginal candidates including as Bloomberg put it: "a factory worker in a T-shirt, a drawling southern farmer and a high school teacher in her second run for president who called for firing workers to be outlawed".
With 18 days to go until the first round of voting, Macron, Le Pen and embattled Francois Fillon remained with the same split of first-round vote, according to Opinionway.
However, Le Pen has gained a second-round share in recent days, with a Macron/Le Pen split of 60/40 if the two current first-round leaders make it through to the second run-off.
A final debate scheduled for 20 April may not take place as some candidates have objected due to it being too close to the first voting round on 23 April.
“Marine Le Pen’s score is quite mediocre because she had competition on the anti-European issue,” pollster Bernard Sananes at Elabe said.
Danske Bank's Aila Mihr said the impact of the debates should not be underestimated, and polling for Macron and communist-backed Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who was felt to be the most convincing in the debate, move up after their convincing performance.
"Macron’s support surged after the first TV debate, when he was seen as the most convincing candidate and similarly for Melénchon, who due to his performance has now overtaken the Socialist candidate Benoît Hamon in the polls," Danske said.
The second round run-off on 7 May, most likely to be between Le Pen and Macron, remains unpredictable, as the overall electorate is still vague in their voting intentions, with only 62% expressing certainty in their choice of candidate to leave the result open to the participation rate.
While participation for presidential elections has been relatively high at around 80%, Mihr noted that recent polls have suggested that voter turnout might be nearer 66-76%, due to widespread dissatisfaction with the political class.
"Should this be the case, it would be likely to boost Le Pen’s chances of winning, as her supporters remain the most certain of their vote at 81%, compared to only 63% for Macron supporters."