TNS poll shows yes and no camp neck-and neck in Scottish vote
The results of a poll published on Monday evening confirmed that the ‘yes’ camp in the upcoming Scottish referendum has indeed gained ground over the last month.
According to pollster TNS 39% of voters would vote against Scotland’s independence, down from 45% last month. On the other hand, 38% now say they would vote ‘yes’, a substantial rise on the 32% who answered similarly a month ago.
The results out from another survey published over the weekend sent sterling 1.42% lower to 1.6097 in Monday’s trading session – a 10-month low.
In parallel, volatility on the Footsie spiked 22% while trading volumes increased by 30% versus their average level of the last 30 days.
To take note of, money markets have already pushed back the timing of the first rate hike in the Uk to August 2015.
There are reports indicating that some businesses and consumers have even gone as far as beginning to transfer bank deposits to England to hedge against the risk of a currency break-up should the 300-year old political union come to an end.
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to speak at 11:45. While the above poll results were unexpected investors will likely now be watching in case he should decide to make any remarks he might make on the subject.
While analysts seem to be at a bit of a loss to quantify exactly what the impact of Scottish independence would be, the long-term implications for British financial assets seem to be potentially quite considerable.
There is talk in the markets that a successful bid for independence might even see cable drop as low as 1.50 in the very near term.
Nevertheless, it must be pointed out that 23% of respondents in the TNS poll said they were still undecided.