Week Ahead: Thomas Cook, TUI Travel, Aberdeen Asset

Date: Friday 26 Nov 2010

With the UK apparently set for a spell of cold weather next week the market may well be in just the mood to get its teeth into trading updates from holiday firms Thomas Cook and TUI Travel.

Thomas Cook recently announced its long awaited move into the Russian market while interest on TUI Travel has centred on whether major shareholder TUI will launch a bid to take full control of the company.

The share price of fund manager Aberdeen Asset hit a 52-week high earlier this month though it has come off the top since. Tuesday’s full year results might provide further impetus, with the group expected to report good progress on debt reduction and margin improvement.

KBC Peel Hunt is forecasting profit before tax of £191m and earnings per share (EPS) of 12.0p, a little above consensus on profits but bang on the money with the EPS. The broker thinks the full year dividend will be hiked by 16% to 7.00p, putting it well ahead of the consensus figure of 6.64p.

The broker expects assets under management (AuM) to show “modest growth” to £171.4bn from the £168.8m reported at the end of August.

“For the 11 months to 31 August, the group had recorded £1.0bn of net inflows. The financial impact of this is more significant, however, as the broad trend has been a switch from lower-margin fixed-income products into higher-margin equity mandates. Fixed-income outflows amounted to £10.6bn for the 11-month period, indicating that performance issues have not yet been fully worked through, although we believe that the outlook for 2011 is better (as the poor performance numbers drop out by August or September),” the broker said.

“Even within asset classes, Aberdeen has been successful at winning new business at higher margin than existing business (partly a business mix issue, with more Global Equities Management and Global mandates, in addition to a greater proportion of pooled funds),” Peel Hunt added.

On the economic front, the key announcements are likely to be the European Central Bank’s interest rate announcement on Thursday and US non-farm payrolls on the Friday.

The European Central Bank is most unlikely to change its key lending rate but it might have to rethink its plans to continue withdrawing emergency stimulus measures in view of the crisis in the euro-zone.

The US employment data will, as ever, give the earliest gauge in the month of the health of the US economy. The unemployment rate for October is expected to remain at 9.6% while non-farm payrolls are expected to climb by 146,000 after September’s 151,000 increase.

In the UK, expect lots of focus on the housing market next week with Hometrack and Nationwide both set to announce their latest house price surveys while on Monday the Bank of England will publish details on mortgage approvals for house purchases.

Final mortgage approvals in October are expected to dip to 47,000 from September’s 47,494.

Net consumer credit is forecast to have crept up by £100m in October after rising £262m in September. There is plenty of evidence to suggest UK borrowers are anxious to pay down debt, and there is still only a restricted amount of unsecured credit available from banks.

Monday November 29

INTERIMS
Acal, Invista Foundation Property Trust Ltd., Iomart Group, Phoenix IT Group

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Senior

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Schlumberger Ltd.

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Household Spending (JPN)
Jobless Rate (JPN)
Industrial Production (JPN)
GFK Consumer Confidence (GER) (07:00)
PMI Retail (GER) (08:55)
PMI Retail (EU) (09:00)
Business Climate Indicator (EU) (10:00)
Economic Sentiment Indicator (EU) (10:00)
GDP Growth Estimate (EU) (10:45)
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index (US) (15:30)

Q3
X5 Retail Group NV GDR (Reg S)

GMS
Bellway, BlueBay Asset Management, Gartmore Growth Opportunities, IS Pharma, Zest Group

FINALS
Phytopharm

ANNUAL REPORT
Diploma

EGMS
Trinity Capital

AGMS
Chalkwell Investments, Creat Resources Holdings Ltd. (DI), Feedback, Fidelity Asian Values, Fidelity Asian Values 'S' Shares, Forte Energy NL, Gladstone Pacific Nickel Ltd., Global Petroleum Ltd., Leyshon Resources Ltd., Range Resources Ltd. (DI)

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Hometrack Housing Survey (00:01)
Consumer Credit (09:30)
M4 Money Supply (09:30)
M4 Sterling Lending (09:30)
Mortgage Approvals (09:30)
PMI Retail (09:30)

Tuesday November 30

INTERIMS
ACM Shipping Group, Creston, Findel, First Property Group, GB Group, Halma, Hogg Robinson Group, Immunodiagnostic Systems Holdings, Northumbrian Water Group, Real Estate Credit Investments Ltd., RPC Group, VP

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
BAE Systems, Lookers, Old Mutual, Provident Financial

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Bankers Inv Trust, City of London Inv Trust

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Construction Orders (JPN)
Producer Prices (FRA) (07:45)
Unemployment Rate (GER) (08:55)
Consumer Price Index (EU) (10:00)
Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (EU) (10:00)
Unemployment Rate (EU) (10:00)
International Reserves (EU) (11:00)
Chicago PMI (US) (13:45)
Consumer Confidence (US) (15:00)
NAPM Milwaukee (US) (15:00)
ABC Consumer Confidence (US) (22:00)

Q2
Real Estate Credit Investments Ltd.

Q3
JSC Kazkommertsbank GDR (Reg S), National Bank of Greece ADR, OJSC Cherkizovo Group GDR (Reg S)

GMS
Lupus Capital

FINALS
Aberdeen Asset Management, Gooch & Housego, Holidaybreak, ITE Group, Nasstar, Sanderson Group, Shaftesbury, Silverdell, Topps Tiles

ANNUAL REPORT
Nasstar, Topps Tiles, Xtract Energy

SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Edinburgh Inv Trust

AGMS
Aberdeen Asian Smaller Companies Inv Trust, Baillie Gifford Japan Trust, Cash Converters International Ltd. Units, Greatland Gold, Plexus Holdings, Sky High, St Ives, Sylvania Resources Ltd. (DI), Victoria Oil & Gas

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
GFK Consumer Confidence (00:01)
Nationwide House Price Index (07:00)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Anglo & Overseas, Manchester & London Inv Trust

Wednesday December 01

INTERIMS
African Consolidated Resources, Anite, Cyril Sweett Group, GEONG International Ltd., May Gurney Integrated Services, Telford Homes

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Aga Rangemaster Group, Ladbrokes, Sony Corp.

INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Alliance Pharma, Assura Group Ltd., Caledonia Investments, Dee Valley Group, Dee Valley Group (Non-Voting), Establishment Inv Trust, GCP Infrastructure Investments Ltd., Hamworthy, Hansa Trust, Hansa Trust 'A' Shares, Headlam Group, Helical Bar, Homeserve, Intermediate Capital Group, Investment Company, JD Sports Fashion, Johnson Matthey, Kewill, London & Stamford Property Ltd., London Stock Exchange Group, Management Consulting Group, Mckay Securities, Morgan Crucible Co, National Grid, Northern Investors Co, PayPoint, Rensburg AIM VCT, SABMiller, Sepura, Severn Trent, Slingsby H.C, Tate & Lyle, UK Mail Group , Young & Co's Brewery 'A' Shares

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
JPMorgan Claverhouse Inv Trust

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Bank of America Corp., Premier Energy & Water Trust

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
PMI Manufacturing (FRA) (08:50)
PMI Manufacturing (GER) (08:55)
PMI Manufacturing(EU) (09:00)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
Non-farm Productivity (US) (13:30)
Unit Labour Costs (US) (13:30)
ISM Manufacturing (US) (15:00)
ISM Prices Paid (US) (15:00)
Construction Spending (US) (15:00)
Auto Sales (US) (15:00)
Existing Home Sales (US) (15:00)
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
Beige Book Fed Survey (US) (19:00)

GMS
Gartmore European Inv Trust, Integrated Asset Management

FINALS
Brewin Dolphin Holdings, Sage Group, Thomas Cook Group

EGMS
Allianz Dresdner Endowment Policy Trust 2010

AGMS
BlackRock Greater Europe Inv Trust, BlackRock Greater Europe Inv Trust Sub Shares, GR Holdings, Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd., Leaf Clean Energy Co (DI), Nighthawk Energy, WFCA

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
PMI Manufacturing (09:30)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Dods Group

FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
A&J Mucklow Group, Daily Mail and General Trust, Daily Mail and General Trust 'Ord' Shares, Diploma, Greencore Group, Group NBT, JPMorgan Japanese Inv Trust, K3 Business Technology Group, Northamber, Pan African Resources, RSM Tenon Group, Smart (J) & Co., St Ives, Standard Life Equity Income Trust

Thursday December 02

INTERIMS
API Group, Consort Medical, Mountview Estate

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Unemployment Rate [ILO] (FRA) (06:30)
PMI Construction (GER) (08:55)
PMI Construction (EU) (09:00)
GDP (1st release) (EU) (10:00)
Household Consumption (EU) (10:00)
Producer Price Index (EU) (10:00)
ECB Interest Rate (EU) (12:45)
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)
Pending Homes Sales (US) (15:00)

FINALS
Britvic, Local Shopping REIT, Marston's, OMG, Redhall Group, TUI Travel

SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Aberdeen Asian Smaller Companies Inv Trust

AGMS
AI Claims Solutions, Avation, Black Sea Property Fund Ltd., Capital Lease Aviation, Frontera Resources Corp., GETECH Group, Norseman Gold, Trading Emissions

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Kingfisher

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
PMI Construction (09:30)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Aberdeen Asian Smaller Companies Inv Trust

Friday December 03

INTERIMS
Berkeley Group Holdings , Falkland Islands Holdings, Greene King

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Balfour Beatty, DCC, Hilton Food Group, JZ Capital Partners Ltd., Laird, Marshalls, Norcon, Northern 2 VCT, Prime People, Scottish Mortgage Inv Trust, SThree, TDK Corp.

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Frontline Ltd.

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Retail Sales (GER) (07:00)
PMI Services (FRA) (08:50)
PMI Services (GER) (08:55)
PMI Services (EU) (09:00)
Retail Sales (EU) (10:00)
Non-Farm Payrolls (US) (13:30)
Unemployment Rate (US) (13:30)
ISM Non-Manufacturing (US) (15:00)
Business Inventories (US) (15:00)
Factory Orders (US) (15:00)
ISM Services (US) (15:00)

GMS
Red Rock Resources, Regency Mines

FINALS
Pursuit Dynamics

SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
JZ Capital Partners Ltd.

AGMS
@UK, Asian Citrus Holding, Aurora Russia Ltd., Ceres Power Holdings, Interior Services Group, Lok'n Store Group, Polo Resources Ltd. (DI), Waterman Group

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
SThree

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Halifax House Price Index (09:30)
Official Reserves (09:30)
PMI Composite (09:30)
PMI Services (09:30)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Ashmore Group, BlueBay Asset Management, James Halstead, Matchtech Group, Murgitroyd Group, United Carpets Group

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